Case Study, Exploration of the Risk in the Cultivation of Apricots (Prunus armeniaca L.) in Sár-Hegy (Heves County), based on the examination of frost damage

Abstract

Nowadays, climate change manifests itself in many ways, often in the form of weather extremes and events of unpredictable suddenness. There are many different signs of change in the climate system, and their manifestations vary in space and time. It is therefore important to study the signs of climate change at the local and regional level in as much detail as possible. The Sár-hegy in Heves County is no exception. Its specific natural geographical and microclimatic conditions are particularly favourable for the cultivation of apricots (Prunus armeniaca L.), which also means that even small, unfavourable atmospheric changes due to climate change can affect the success of apricot cultivation, which has a history of several decades, and which changes can have negative consequences, among others, for the national economy. Since the prosperous cultivability of apricots is mainly influenced by the onset of frosts during efflorescence, the return and reappearance (in spring) of frosts and the severity of spring frost. Therefore, the aim of this study is – for the last two decades (2002-2024) – to investigate the evolution of these phenomena and circumstances and to present and explore in detail the results obtained. Our results show, that, despite the general warming trend, the occurrence of mild (Tmin <= -1.5°C) and moderately hard (Tmin <= -4.0°C) spring frosts could be expected regularly throughout the phenological flowering phase (20 February – 10 April). Meanwhile, the occurrence of hard frosts (Tmin <= -6.5 °C) seemed to become less frequent in the 3rd decade of February and 1st decade of March, but their return could be expected periodically in the 2nd and 3rd decade of March. The return of the last spring frost day of the year occurred increasingly later (2nd and 3rd decade of April) and in the form of lower and lower temperatures in the period 2002-2024, in most cases in the form of a critical frost (Tmin <= -1.0 °C). All these changes suggest that in the northern parts of the country it is necessary to maintain frost protection preparedness and the possibility of applying frost protection procedures in apricot plantations until the end of April. In addition to this, our results draw attention to the combined occurrence of intense spring warming and cooling within a year, which severe heat fluctuations (e.g. 2018) are also associated with exceptional yield losses.